Epidemiology

Find the latest research on disease outbreaks, data modeling, statistics and prevalence of COVID 19:  

1. Emergence & Spread
2. Data Modeling & Statistics

*Check out additional data and modeling resources at Mathemetica.

January 2021

• *NEW Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston highlights the impact of superspreading events.
• *NEW Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data.
• *NEW Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2.
• Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020.
• Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.
• Event-specific interventions to minimize COVID-19 transmission.
• Global seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
• Lockdown related travel behavior undermines thecontainment of SARS-CoV-2.
• Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020.
• Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020.
• Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2.

December 2020

• Sequencing identifies multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to the New York City Region.
• Establishment & lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK.
• Public health antibody screening indicates a six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate than reported cases in children.
• Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors.
• Long-distance airborne dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 wards.
• Multiple COVID-19 Outbreaks Linked to a Wedding Reception in Rural Maine - August 7-September 14, 2020.
• Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an Oropharyngeal Swab Specimen, Milan, Italy, Early December 2019.
• Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China.
• COVID-19 infections following outdoor mass gatherings in low incidence areas: retrospective cohort study.
• SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine.
• Lethal Pneumonia Cases in Mojiang Miners (2012) and the Mineshaft Could Provide Important Clues to the Origin of SARS-CoV-2.
• Multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into a global travel hub in the Middle East.
• Effectiveness of Face Masks in Preventing Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
• Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Public Transportation Vehicles: A Case Study in Hunan Province, China.
• Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Massive Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Major Metropolitan Area.
• Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy.

November 2020

• Association of County-Wide Mask Ordinances with Reductions in Daily CoVID-19 Incident Case Growth in a Midwestern Region Over 12 Weeks.
• Sewage as a Possible Transmission Vehicle During a Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak in a Densely populated Community: Guangzhou, China, April 2020.
• The role of environmental factors on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: an initial assessment in two spatial scales.
• SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations.

October 2020

• Symptoms and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among Children-Utah and Wisconsin, March-May 2020.
• SARS-CoV-2 Cluster in Nursery, Poland.
• Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Children and Adolescents.
• Exhaled aerosol increases with COVID-19 infection, and risk factors of disease symptom severity.
• Flight-Associated Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Corroborated by Whole-Genome Sequencing.
• SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among a Southern U.S. Population Indicates Limited Asymptomatic Spread under Physical Distancing Measures.
• In-Flight Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
• Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis.
• Serological identification of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children visiting a hospital during the initial Seattle outbreak.
• Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia using genomics.
• The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa.

September 2020

• Incidence of Nosocomial COVID-19 in Patients Hospitalized at a Large US Academic Medical Center.
• The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America.
• Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington state.
• The timing of COVID-19 transmission.
• Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve.
• Cluster of SARS-CoV-2 infections linked to music clubs in Osaka, Japan: asymptomatically infected persons can transmit the virus as soon as 2 days after infection.

August 2020

• Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.
• SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings: cross-sectional analysis of clusters and outbreaks in England.
• The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
• SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring.
• Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care.
• Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
• The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China.
• Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.
• Observations of the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from the prepandemic period using web-based surveillance: a cross-sectional analysis.
• Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within families with children in Greece: a study of 23 clusters.
• COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.
• Age-Related Differences in Nasopharyngeal Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Levels in Patients With Mild to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
• Descriptive epidemiology of 16,780 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States.
• Mechanisms of Airborne Infection via Evaporating and Sedimenting Droplets Produced by Speaking.

July 2020

• Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020.
• Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.
• Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
• Seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among health care workers in a large Spanish reference hospital.
• Recurrence of positive SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in recovered COVID-19 patients during medical isolation observation.
• Rapid implementation of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing to investigate cases of health-care associated COVID-19: a prospective genomic surveillance study.
• Probable Vertical Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.
• A Surface Coating that Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2.
• Increasing Temperature and Relative Humidity Accelerates Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces.
• Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices.
• Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Adults to Children.
• Sentinel Coronavirus Environmental Monitoring Can Contribute to Detecting Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Virus Spreaders and Can Verify Effectiveness of Workplace COVID-19 Controls.
• Diagnostic technology for COVID-19: comparative evaluation of antigen and serology-based SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays, and contact tracing solutions for potential use as at-home products.

June 2020

• Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset.
• Associations Between Built Environment, Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Pregnant Women in New York City.
• Epidemiological features and viral shedding in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
• SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Taiwan revealed novel ORF8-deletion mutant and clade possibly associated with infections in Middle East.
• Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland (SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study.
• Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California.
• SARS-CoV-2 Whole Genome Amplification and Sequencing for Effective Population-Based Surveillance and Control of Viral Transmission.

May 2020

• Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19.
• The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.
• The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
• Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate.
• The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths - an epidemiological study.
• Quantitative COVID-19 infectiousness estimate correlating with viral shedding and culturability suggests 68% pre-symptomatic transmissions.
• COVID-19: animals, veterinary and zoonotic links.
• Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of 26 Cases of COVID-19 Arising from Patient-to-Patient Transmission in Liaocheng, China.
• Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic.

April 2020

• Connecting clusters of COVID-19: an epidemiological and serological investigation.
• Potential Fecal Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Current Evidence and Implications for Public Health.
• Infection Density and Epidemic Size of COVID-19 in China outside the Hubei province.
• Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19.
• Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population.
• Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility.
• Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission.
• Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019.
• A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.

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January 2021

• *NEW Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany.
• *NEW Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.
• The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.
• The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020.

November 2020

• COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. before vs. after relaxation of statewide social distancing measures.
• The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
• Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
• The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age.
• Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.

October 2020

• Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications.
• Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.
• Assessment and mitigation of aerosol airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission in laboratory and office environments.
• Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies.
• Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications.
• Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.

September 2020

• Modelling the transmission of infectious diseases inside hospital bays: implications for Covid-19.
• Modeling the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 immunity waning, antigenic drifting, and population serology patterns.
• Spatial heterogeneity can lead to substantial local variations in COVID-19 timing and severity.
• Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
• Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.
• The COVID-19 Airborne Transmission (CAT) Inequality: A Simple Mathematical Framework for Estimating Airborne Transmission of COVID-19.
• Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
• Modeling the viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
• Modelling aerosol transport and virus exposure with numerical simulations in relation to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by inhalation indoors.
• A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate.
• Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
• Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States.
• Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies.
• The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.

August 2020

• Estimation of Viral Aerosol Emissions From Simulated Individuals With Asymptomatic to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019.
• The risk of COVID-19 transmission in train passengers: an epidemiological and modelling study.
• Model-Informed Drug Repurposing: Viral Kinetic Modeling to Prioritize Rational Drug Combinations for COVID-19.
• Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.
• Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics.
• Modeling the Inactivation of Viruses from the Coronaviridae Family in Response to Temperature and Relative Humidity in Suspensions or on Surfaces.
• Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan.
• Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.
• A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France.
• Oscillations in U.S. COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Data Reflect Diagnostic and Reporting Factors.
• Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.

July 2020

• Exploring the SARS-CoV-2 virus-host-drug interactome for drug repurposing.
• The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.
• Symptom clusters in Covid19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom study app.
• Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19.
• Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the USA: a mathematical modelling study.
• Predictors of progression from moderate to severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort.
• Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.
• A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19.

June 2020

• Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France.
• Why are most COVID-19 infection curves linear?
• Identifying the measurements required to estimate rates of COVID-19 transmission, infection, and detection, using variational data assimilation.
• Impact of Superspreaders on dissemination and mitigation of COVID-19.
• Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.
• Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries.

May 2020

• Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States due to incomplete testing and imperfect test accuracy.
• A novel COVID-19 epidemiological model with explicit susceptible and asymptomatic isolation compartments reveals unexpected consequences of timing social distancing.
• Predicting the Growth and Trend of COVID-19 Pandemic using Machine Learning and Cloud Computing.
• Estimation of airborne viral emission: Quanta emission rate of SARS-CoV-2 for infection risk assessment.
• Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.
• Warmer weather and global trends in the coronavirus COVID-19.
• Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.
• Characterisation of COVID-19 Pandemic in Paediatric Age Group: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
• A simulation-based procedure to estimate base rates from Covid-19 antibody test results I: Deterministic test reliabilities.
• Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France.
• Open access epidemiologic data and an interactive dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada.
• Modelling the evolution of COVID-19 in high-incidence European countries and regions: estimated number of infections and impact of past and future intervention measures.

April 2020

• Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information.
• Methodological challenges in studying the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
• Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective.
• Estimating the real-time case fatality rate of COVID-19 using Poisson mixtures model.
• First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment.
• Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea.

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