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Epidemiology
Find the latest research on disease outbreaks, data modeling, statistics and prevalence of COVID 19: *Check out additional data and modeling resources at Mathemetica.
Emergence & Spread
April 2021
March 2021
- Just 2% of SARS-CoV-2-positive individuals carry 90% of the virus circulating in communities.
- COVID-19 Outbreak Among Attendees of an Exercise Facility - Chicago, Illinois, August-September 2020.
- Mapping a Pandemic: SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity in the United States.
- Before the Surge: Molecular Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City Prior to the First Report.
- Household transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for susceptibility and infectivity in Wuhan: a retrospective observational study.
- Emergence of an early SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the United States.
- Early introductions and community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 in the United States.
- Genomic Epidemiology of the First Wave of SARS-CoV-2 in Italy.
February 2021
- Epidemiological Investigation of New SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01 in England.
- Introduction of the South African SARS-CoV-2 variant 501Y.V2 into the UK.
- Genomic Evidence of In-Flight Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Despite Predeparture Testing.
- COVID-19 Cases and Transmission in 17 K-12 Schools - Wood County, Wisconsin, August 31-November 29, 2020.
- Possible Aerosol Transmission of COVID-19 Associated with an Outbreak in an Apartment in Seoul, South Korea, 2020.
- Seroprevalence and asymptomatic carrier status of SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan City and other places of China.
- Opening of Large Institutions of Higher Education and County-Level COVID-19 Incidence - United States, July 6-September 17, 2020.
- Incidence and Secondary Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infections in Schools.
January 2021
- Phylogenetic analysis of SARS-CoV-2 in Boston highlights the impact of superspreading events.
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Lineage B.1.1.7 in England: Insights from linking epidemiological and genetic data.
- Genomic epidemiology of superspreading events in Austria reveals mutational dynamics and transmission properties of SARS-CoV-2.
- Serologic testing of U.S. blood donations to identify SARS-CoV-2-reactive antibodies: December 2019-January 2020.
- Three-quarters attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 in the Brazilian Amazon during a largely unmitigated epidemic.
- Event-specific interventions to minimize COVID-19 transmission.
- Global seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies: a systematic review and meta-analysis.
- Lockdown related travel behavior undermines thecontainment of SARS-CoV-2.
- Emergence and spread of a SARS-CoV-2 variant through Europe in the summer of 2020.
- Epidemiological characteristics of COVID-19 cases and estimates of the reproductive numbers 1 month into the epidemic, Italy, 28 January to 31 March 2020.
- Transmission heterogeneities, kinetics, and controllability of SARS-CoV-2.
2020
December 2020
- Sequencing identifies multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 to the New York City Region.
- Establishment & lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK.
- Public health antibody screening indicates a six-fold higher SARS-CoV-2 exposure rate than reported cases in children.
- Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Kenyan blood donors.
- Long-distance airborne dispersal of SARS-CoV-2 in COVID-19 wards.
- Multiple COVID-19 Outbreaks Linked to a Wedding Reception in Rural Maine - August 7-September 14, 2020.
- Evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in an Oropharyngeal Swab Specimen, Milan, Italy, Early December 2019.
- Post-lockdown SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid screening in nearly ten million residents of Wuhan, China.
- COVID-19 infections following outdoor mass gatherings in low incidence areas: retrospective cohort study.
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission among Marine Recruits during Quarantine.
- Lethal Pneumonia Cases in Mojiang Miners (2012) and the Mineshaft Could Provide Important Clues to the Origin of SARS-CoV-2.
- Multiple early introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into a global travel hub in the Middle East.
- Effectiveness of Face Masks in Preventing Airborne Transmission of SARS-CoV-2.
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Public Transportation Vehicles: A Case Study in Hunan Province, China.
- Molecular Architecture of Early Dissemination and Massive Second Wave of the SARS-CoV-2 Virus in a Major Metropolitan Area.
- Unexpected detection of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the prepandemic period in Italy.
November 2020
- Association of County-Wide Mask Ordinances with Reductions in Daily CoVID-19 Incident Case Growth in a Midwestern Region Over 12 Weeks.
- Sewage as a Possible Transmission Vehicle During a Coronavirus Disease 2019 Outbreak in a Densely populated Community: Guangzhou, China, April 2020.
- The role of environmental factors on transmission rates of the COVID-19 outbreak: an initial assessment in two spatial scales.
- SARS-CoV-2 sequencing reveals rapid transmission from college student clusters resulting in morbidity and deaths in vulnerable populations.
October 2020
- Symptoms and Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 among Children-Utah and Wisconsin, March-May 2020.
- SARS-CoV-2 Cluster in Nursery, Poland.
- Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Children and Adolescents.
- Exhaled aerosol increases with COVID-19 infection, and risk factors of disease symptom severity.
- Flight-Associated Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 Corroborated by Whole-Genome Sequencing.
- SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence among a Southern U.S. Population Indicates Limited Asymptomatic Spread under Physical Distancing Measures.
- In-Flight Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2.
- Occurrence and transmission potential of asymptomatic and presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections: A living systematic review and meta-analysis.
- Serological identification of SARS-CoV-2 infections among children visiting a hospital during the initial Seattle outbreak.
- Tracking the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia using genomics.
- The spatio-temporal epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 outbreak in Africa.
September 2020
- Incidence of Nosocomial COVID-19 in Patients Hospitalized at a Large US Academic Medical Center.
- The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in Europe and North America.
- Cryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Washington state.
- The timing of COVID-19 transmission.
- Local lockdowns outperform global lockdown on the far side of the COVID-19 epidemic curve.
- Cluster of SARS-CoV-2 infections linked to music clubs in Osaka, Japan: asymptomatically infected persons can transmit the virus as soon as 2 days after infection.
August 2020
- Understanding transmission and intervention for the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.
- SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission in educational settings: cross-sectional analysis of clusters and outbreaks in England.
- The contribution of asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections to transmission on the Diamond Princess cruise ship.
- SARS-CoV-2 has been circulating in northern Italy since December 2019: Evidence from environmental monitoring.
- Aerosol and surface contamination of SARS-CoV-2 observed in quarantine and isolation care.
- Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China.
- The impact of relaxing interventions on human contact patterns and SARS-CoV-2 transmission in China.
- Early analysis of the Australian COVID-19 epidemic.
- Observations of the global epidemiology of COVID-19 from the prepandemic period using web-based surveillance: a cross-sectional analysis.
- Transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 within families with children in Greece: a study of 23 clusters.
- COVID-19: Time to exonerate the pangolin from the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 to humans.
- Age-Related Differences in Nasopharyngeal Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Levels in Patients With Mild to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19).
- Descriptive epidemiology of 16,780 hospitalized COVID-19 patients in the United States.
- Mechanisms of Airborne Infection via Evaporating and Sedimenting Droplets Produced by Speaking.
July 2020
- Seroprevalence of Antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 in 10 Sites in the United States, March 23-May 12, 2020.
- Serial interval of SARS-CoV-2 was shortened over time by nonpharmaceutical interventions.
- Evolution and epidemic spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Brazil.
- Seroprevalence of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 among health care workers in a large Spanish reference hospital.
- Recurrence of positive SARS-CoV-2 viral RNA in recovered COVID-19 patients during medical isolation observation.
- Rapid implementation of SARS-CoV-2 sequencing to investigate cases of health-care associated COVID-19: a prospective genomic surveillance study.
- Probable Vertical Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 Infection.
- A Surface Coating that Rapidly Inactivates SARS-CoV-2.
- Increasing Temperature and Relative Humidity Accelerates Inactivation of SARS-CoV-2 on Surfaces.
- Estimation of country-level basic reproductive ratios for novel Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2/COVID-19) using synthetic contact matrices.
- Household Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from Adults to Children.
- Sentinel Coronavirus Environmental Monitoring Can Contribute to Detecting Asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Virus Spreaders and Can Verify Effectiveness of Workplace COVID-19 Controls.
- Diagnostic technology for COVID-19: comparative evaluation of antigen and serology-based SARS-CoV-2 immunoassays, and contact tracing solutions for potential use as at-home products.
June 2020
- Evidence for transmission of COVID-19 prior to symptom onset.
- Associations Between Built Environment, Neighborhood Socioeconomic Status, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection Among Pregnant Women in New York City.
- Epidemiological features and viral shedding in children with SARS-CoV-2 infection.
- SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance in Taiwan revealed novel ORF8-deletion mutant and clade possibly associated with infections in Middle East.
- Seroprevalence of anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG antibodies in Geneva, Switzerland (SEROCoV-POP): a population-based study.
- Genomic surveillance reveals multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Northern California.
- SARS-CoV-2 Whole Genome Amplification and Sequencing for Effective Population-Based Surveillance and Control of Viral Transmission.
May 2020
- Herd Immunity: Understanding COVID-19.
- The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is likely comodulated by temperature and by relative humidity.
- The airborne lifetime of small speech droplets and their potential importance in SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
- Strong Social Distancing Measures In The United States Reduced The COVID-19 Growth Rate.
- The effect of ambient temperature on worldwide COVID-19 cases and deaths - an epidemiological study.
- Quantitative COVID-19 infectiousness estimate correlating with viral shedding and culturability suggests 68% pre-symptomatic transmissions.
- COVID-19: animals, veterinary and zoonotic links.
- Epidemiologic and Clinical Characteristics of 26 Cases of COVID-19 Arising from Patient-to-Patient Transmission in Liaocheng, China.
- Evidence Supporting Transmission of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 While Presymptomatic or Asymptomatic.
April 2020
- Connecting clusters of COVID-19: an epidemiological and serological investigation.
- Potential Fecal Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: Current Evidence and Implications for Public Health.
- Infection Density and Epidemic Size of COVID-19 in China outside the Hubei province.
- Asymptomatic Transmission, the Achilles’ Heel of Current Strategies to Control Covid-19.
- Spread of SARS-CoV-2 in the Icelandic Population.
- Presymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 Infections and Transmission in a Skilled Nursing Facility.
- Crowding and the epidemic intensity of COVID-19 transmission.
- Virological assessment of hospitalized patients with COVID-2019.
- A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.
Data Modeling & Statistics
April 2021
- *NEW Increased mortality in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7.
- *NEW Risk of mortality in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern 202012/1: matched cohort study.
- *NEW Case fatality risk of the SARS-CoV-2 variant of concern B.1.1.7 in England.
- *NEW Impacts of introducing and lifting nonpharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 daily growth rate and compliance in the United States.
March 2021
- First indication of the effect of COVID-19 vaccinations on the course of the COVID-19 outbreak in Israel.
- Age groups that sustain resurging COVID-19 epidemics in the United States.
- Country-level determinants of the severity of the first global wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: an ecological study.
- Effect of internationally imported cases on internal spread of COVID-19: a mathematical modelling study.
- Estimating internationally imported cases during the early COVID-19 pandemic.
- Quarantine and testing strategies in contact tracing for SARS-CoV-2: a modelling study.
February 2021
- Evaluation of COVID-19 vaccination strategies with a delayed second dose.
- Increased hazard of death in community-tested cases of SARS-CoV-2 Variant of Concern 202012/01.
- The Impact of the November 2020 English National Lockdown on COVID-19 case counts.
- Robust estimates of the true (population) infection rate for COVID-19: a backcasting approach.
- SARS-CoV-2 Transmission From People Without COVID-19 Symptoms.
January 2021
- Modeling between-population variation in COVID-19 dynamics in Hubei, Lombardy, and New York City.
- Physics of virus transmission by speaking droplets.
- Speech can produce jet-like transport relevant to asymptomatic spreading of virus.
- Face masks considerably reduce COVID-19 cases in Germany.
- Inferring the effectiveness of government interventions against COVID-19.
- The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States.
- The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020.
2020
November 2020
- COVID-19 transmission in the U.S. before vs. after relaxation of statewide social distancing measures.
- The Interaction of Natural and Vaccine-Induced Immunity with Social Distancing Predicts the Evolution of the COVID-19 Pandemic.
- Age-specific mortality and immunity patterns of SARS-CoV-2.
- The age distribution of mortality from novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) suggests no large difference of susceptibility by age.
- Modeling COVID-19 scenarios for the United States.
October 2020
- Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications.
- Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.
- Assessment and mitigation of aerosol airborne SARS-CoV-2 transmission in laboratory and office environments.
- Transmission dynamics reveal the impracticality of COVID-19 herd immunity strategies.
- Quantitative assessment of the risk of airborne transmission of SARS-CoV-2 infection: Prospective and retrospective applications.
- Immune life history, vaccination, and the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 over the next 5 years.
September 2020
- Modelling the transmission of infectious diseases inside hospital bays: implications for Covid-19.
- Modeling the dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 immunity waning, antigenic drifting, and population serology patterns.
- Spatial heterogeneity can lead to substantial local variations in COVID-19 timing and severity.
- Early Insights from Statistical and Mathematical Modeling of Key Epidemiologic Parameters of COVID-19.
- Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States.
- The COVID-19 Airborne Transmission (CAT) Inequality: A Simple Mathematical Framework for Estimating Airborne Transmission of COVID-19.
- Superspreading of SARS-CoV-2 in the USA.
- Modeling the viral dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
- Modelling aerosol transport and virus exposure with numerical simulations in relation to SARS-CoV-2 transmission by inhalation indoors.
- A global-scale ecological niche model to predict SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus infection rate.
- Face mask use in the general population and optimal resource allocation during the COVID-19 pandemic.
- Assessment of SARS-CoV-2 Screening Strategies to Permit the Safe Reopening of College Campuses in the United States.
- Using a real-world network to model localized COVID-19 control strategies.
- The potential public health consequences of COVID-19 on malaria in Africa.
August 2020
- Estimation of Viral Aerosol Emissions From Simulated Individuals With Asymptomatic to Moderate Coronavirus Disease 2019.
- The risk of COVID-19 transmission in train passengers: an epidemiological and modelling study.
- Model-Informed Drug Repurposing: Viral Kinetic Modeling to Prioritize Rational Drug Combinations for COVID-19.
- Using statistics and mathematical modelling to understand infectious disease outbreaks: COVID-19 as an example.
- Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics.
- Modeling the Inactivation of Viruses from the Coronaviridae Family in Response to Temperature and Relative Humidity in Suspensions or on Surfaces.
- Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan.
- Tracking the reach of COVID-19 kin loss with a bereavement multiplier applied to the United States.
- A stochastic agent-based model of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in France.
- Oscillations in U.S. COVID-19 Incidence and Mortality Data Reflect Diagnostic and Reporting Factors.
- Assessing the impact of coordinated COVID-19 exit strategies across Europe.
July 2020
- Exploring the SARS-CoV-2 virus-host-drug interactome for drug repurposing.
- The impact of COVID-19 and strategies for mitigation and suppression in low- and middle-income countries.
- Symptom clusters in Covid19: A potential clinical prediction tool from the COVID Symptom study app.
- Economic and social consequences of human mobility restrictions under COVID-19.
- Association between mobility patterns and COVID-19 transmission in the USA: a mathematical modelling study.
- Predictors of progression from moderate to severe COVID-19: a retrospective cohort.
- Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.
- A prospect on the use of antiviral drugs to control local outbreaks of COVID-19.
June 2020
- Epidemiological monitoring and control perspectives: application of a parsimonious modelling framework to the COVID-19 dynamics in France.
- Why are most COVID-19 infection curves linear?
- Identifying the measurements required to estimate rates of COVID-19 transmission, infection, and detection, using variational data assimilation.
- Impact of Superspreaders on dissemination and mitigation of COVID-19.
- Statistical analysis of the impact of environmental temperature on the exponential growth rate of cases infected by COVID-19.
- Dynamic interventions to control COVID-19 pandemic: a multivariate prediction modelling study comparing 16 worldwide countries.
May 2020
- Substantial underestimation of SARS-CoV-2 infection in the United States due to incomplete testing and imperfect test accuracy.
- A novel COVID-19 epidemiological model with explicit susceptible and asymptomatic isolation compartments reveals unexpected consequences of timing social distancing.
- Predicting the Growth and Trend of COVID-19 Pandemic using Machine Learning and Cloud Computing.
- Estimation of airborne viral emission: Quanta emission rate of SARS-CoV-2 for infection risk assessment.
- Inferring change points in the spread of COVID-19 reveals the effectiveness of interventions.
- Warmer weather and global trends in the coronavirus COVID-19.
- Estimating the burden of SARS-CoV-2 in France.
- Characterisation of COVID-19 Pandemic in Paediatric Age Group: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.
- A simulation-based procedure to estimate base rates from Covid-19 antibody test results I: Deterministic test reliabilities.
- Estimation of COVID-19 prevalence in Italy, Spain, and France.
- Open access epidemiologic data and an interactive dashboard to monitor the COVID-19 outbreak in Canada.
- Modelling the evolution of COVID-19 in high-incidence European countries and regions: estimated number of infections and impact of past and future intervention measures.
April 2020
- Estimation of COVID-19 spread curves integrating global data and borrowing information.
- Methodological challenges in studying the COVID-19 pandemic crisis.
- Analysis of the mitigation strategies for COVID-19: from mathematical modelling perspective.
- Estimating the real-time case fatality rate of COVID-19 using Poisson mixtures model.
- First-wave COVID-19 transmissibility and severity in China outside Hubei after control measures, and second-wave scenario planning: a modelling impact assessment.
- Estimating the reproductive number and the outbreak size of COVID-19 in Korea.